Change is coming to Supermarketland.

Online grocery retail giant Amazon Fresh has established a beachhead in the United Kingdom's traditional retail grocery landscape, leaving the country's reigning "big 4" grocery retailers (Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrison's) scrambling to decide how best to defend their turf.

As the digital world's most recognized online retail brand - with it's huge arsenal of digital marketing firepower, deep pockets, and patient leadership - launches the most legitimate assault yet on the world of traditional retail grocery stores, the question of how the UK's tried and tested big 4 traditional supermarket brands can cling on to their market share has become one which desperately needs answering, sooner rather than later. 

Exactly what form this answer will take, and from whence it will come is a matter of much speculation.

Only one thing is certain at this point: The UK's reigning retail grocery kings must adapt and evolve. If they don't, Amazon Fresh's tiny UK foothold could very well grow to become a real problem.

Amazon Fresh, which was rolled out in 69 Central and East London postal codes in June, has taken a slow, methodical approach to it’s move into the retail grocery space, and not just in the UK. Even in the US, Amazon’s homeland, the company has thus far managed to capture less than a 1% (0.8% as of this writing) share of the country’s expected $795b food and drink sales for 2016.

But don’t let those numbers fool you. Amazon is playing the long game with this one. They are expected to grow their share at a steady pace within every market that they launch, as consumer understanding grows, as younger consumers (typically much more familiar with the benefits of online shopping) increase their income and begin spending more, and as the public at large adjusts to the new digital trends.

But the UK’s big 4 are already more than aware of these trends, and are loath to back down.

This June, Tesco launched it’s brilliant “Don’t be that guy” advertising campaign, investing millions of pounds to get exposure for the chain’s own online ordering and home delivery program, all tied in with 2016’s European Football Championship tournament.

And Tesco isn’t alone.

Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrison’s have all thrown their hats into the online grocery shopping ring. All now offer a similar service to that of Amazon Fresh and have begun dropping their prices, presumably banking on the idea that they can meet or better the services and prices offered by Amazon Fresh. For the moment it appears that this approach is working.

Meanwhile, the UK’s own up and coming online retail grocery firm, Ocado, has shown steady growth in the UK market since it’s launch in 2000, and showed profits of 8.5 million pounds in the first half of 2016. Ocado’s leadership has repeatedly brushed off concerns about the threat posed to it’s own market share by Amazon Fresh, but has indicated that an “international tie-up” with a major grocery retailer is imminent, leading to speculation that Ocado and Amazon Fresh could join forces.

As for the question of exactly where traditional grocery retail’s established brands should focus their marketing efforts to best defend their turf against Amazon Fresh’s creeping assault, things get a bit murkier. Should they focus their efforts on promoting the benefits of the traditional in-store shopping experience, or push harder for market share in the online grocery shopping arena? Can the big 4 afford the risk of alienating the people that make up either the growing online grocery brigade or the traditional in-store army? Will traditional in-store grocery shopping ever be cool again?

These are tough questions to answer, particularly when one looks at the current data:

37% of Brits surveyed by IDG (Institute of Grocery Distrubution) in May of 2016 reported having purchased a food or grocery product from Amazon in the past month. This represented a 2% increase over the same time period in the previous year. In that same IDG survey, 42% of respondents stated that they could potentially be converted to online grocery shopping.

Those are impressive numbers, indicative of a significant industry trend which mustn’t be ignored.

Again, Amazon is focused squarely on the long game here. Amazon is a profitable company with very deep pockets which can comfortably dig in for a war of attrition with the Big 4 as it establishes itself and it’s Amazon Fresh brand in the UK. The big 4, on the other hand, which have already been tightening their belts for the better part of a decade, can ill afford to take this approach.

The fact of the matter is, beating Amazon at it’s own game – a game in which Amazon has far more flexibility and far less at stake than do the big 4 – is a big ask.

Now is the time for forward thinking and ingenuity from the collective brain trusts of the big 4. Third party products like Adimo demonstrate that innovative marketing approaches can shortcut the journey to purchase, making life easier for shoppers whilst improving loyalty and measurability for brands and retailers.

But that is only part of the story of where the big 4 have thus far fallen short. Their focus on lowering prices to gain an edge neglects the other crucial aspect of value perception in the eyes of consumers – user experience. By collaborating directly with brands,  retailers can source new customers from entirely new channels, all whilst making their sign up and purchase processes simpler with shortcuts like pre-built online shopping baskets. Such approaches could go a long way toward helping to acquire and retain customers more effectively, which in the long run is a far more sustainable approach to retaining market share. Should the UK’s established grocery retail brands begin to adopt such practices, they may just be able to get ahead of the curve and reclaim control of the current situation.”

For the big 4, and indeed traditional retail grocery stores worldwide, the digital options for changing the way they market themselves and their services are plentiful. The time has come to choose a new marketing path and walk it.

All that shareholders and employees can do is wait, and hope that the those in charge choose that path wisely.